The CBR rate cut on July 22, 2022 may amount to 100 bp.

The decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation following the meeting on July 22 this year may amount to 100 bp, says Natalia Lavrova, an analyst at BCS Global Markets (BCS GM).

„Despite the initial intention of the regulator to return to the standard 25-50 bp step in the implementation of monetary policy, deflation and weak economic activity could potentially force the Central Bank to continue a relatively aggressive cycle of rate cuts. We expect that at the meeting on Friday, On July 22, the rate will be cut by 100 bp.” – the expert writes in the review.

Analysts at Bank Saint Petersburg are more vague in their forecast: 50-100 bp.

“The Bank of Russia will meet next Friday, and the weekly inflation data released on Wednesday once again reminds of the potential for further monetary easing. Against this background, the regulator is unlikely to cut the rate by more than 100 bp in a week, and if inflation expectations continue to rise, the step may reach 50 bp.” – write experts in the comments.